Simulation of Delay Factors in Sewage Projects with the Dynamic System Approach

Document Type : Regular Article


1 Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Payame Noor University, Iran

2 Master of Science (M.Sc.) in Civil Engineering, Engineering and Construction Management, Payame Noor University, Iran

3 Master of Science (M.Sc.) in Civil Engineering, Earthquake, Iran University of Science and Technology, Iran


Tehran sewerage company is one of the most important urban management organizations, which project control and delays in its projects is very important. In this regard, the main question of the magnitude and effect of delays, as well as the first step in controlling the delays of each project, is to identify the causes of the time lag of the project. In order to achieve this goal, the information and documentation of sewage networks of Iran - Tehran city (except for projects of main lines of sewage and refineries) has been used during 2011-2017. This study is a descriptive study (case study, survey and library) and the community studied by observers and contractors. For this purpose, all causes of delays in urban projects are identified and classified and the impact of each factor has been determined. Then, the variables have been evaluated using the method of dynamic system and Vensim software in order to influence of factors in the incidence of delays. As a result, the research shows that the total project delays are (respectively, the highest) in the first scenario (baseline) at the end of the 24 months (project completion period) for 140 days, in the fourth scenario for 126 days, in the third scenario for 83 days and in the second scenario for 53 days and the effect of changing the identified factors is examined. In fact, in the first scenario of the full duration work (24 months), a period of 4.7 months is project delays.


Google Scholar


Main Subjects

[1]     H. Naderpour, A. Kheyroddin, and S. Mortazavi, “Risk assessment in bridge construction projects in Iran using Monte Carlo simulation technique,” Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction, vol. 24, no. 4, p. 04019026, 2019.
[2]     S. Mortazavi, A. Kheyroddin, and H. Naderpour, “Risk Evaluation and Prioritization in Bridge Construction Projects Using System Dynamics Approach,” Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction, vol. 25, no. 3, p. 04020015, 2020.
[3]     E. Shahrokhinasab, “ABC-UTC Guide for: Full-Depth Precast Concrete (FDPC) Deck Panels,” 2019.
[4]     D. Garber and E. Shahrokhinasab, “Performance Comparison of In-Service, Full-Depth Precast Concrete Deck Panels to Cast-in-Place Decks,” Accelerated Bridge Construction University Transportation Center (ABC-UTC), 2019.
[5]     J. Wang and H. Yuan, “System dynamics approach for investigating the risk effects on schedule delay in infrastructure projects,” Journal of Management in Engineering, vol. 33, no. 1, p. 04016029, 2017.
[6]     A. Al‐Kharashi and M. Skitmore, “Causes of delays in Saudi Arabian public sector construction projects,” Construction Management and Economics, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 3–23, 2009.
[7]     A. H. Al-Momani, “Construction delay: a quantitative analysis,” International journal of project management, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 51–59, 2000.
[8]     Y. Frimpong, J. Oluwoye, and L. Crawford, “Causes of delay and cost overruns in construction of groundwater projects in a developing countries; Ghana as a case study,” International Journal of project management, vol. 21, no. 5, pp. 321–326, 2003.
[9]     B. Flyvbjerg, M. K. Skamris Holm, and S. L. Buhl, “How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?,” Transport reviews, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 71–88, 2003.
[10]    J. H. Kotir, C. Smith, G. Brown, N. Marshall, and R. Johnstone, “A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana,” Science of the Total Environment, vol. 573, pp. 444–457, 2016.
[11]    S. Howick, “Using system dynamics models with litigation audiences,” European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 162, no. 1, pp. 239–250, 2005.
[12]    H. Yang, K. Lin, Y. Zhou, and X. Du, “The governance of urban traffic jam based on system dynamics: in case of Beijing, China,” in LTLGB 2012, Springer, 2013, pp. 197–207.
[13]    M. O. Mydin, N. M. Sani, N. A. Salim, and N. M. Alias, “Assessment of Influential Causes of Construction Project Delay in Malaysian Private Housing from Developer’s Viewpoint,” 2014, vol. 3, p. 01027.
[14]    R. Aswathi and C. Thomas, “Development of a delay analysis system for a railway construction project,” International Journal of Innovative Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 531–541, 2013.
[15]    G. R. Stumpf, “Schedule delay analysis,” Cost Engineering, vol. 42, no. 7, p. 32, 2000.
[16]    R. F. Aziz, “Ranking of delay factors in construction projects after Egyptian revolution,” Alexandria Engineering Journal, vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 387–406, 2013.
[17]    M. Haseeb, A. Bibi, and W. Rabbani, “Problems of projects and effects of delays in the construction industry of Pakistan,” Australian journal of business and management research, vol. 1, no. 5, pp. 41–50, 2011.
[18]    M. A. Majid and R. McCaffer, “Factors of non-excusable delays that influence contractors’ performance,” Journal of management in engineering, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 42–49, 1998.
[19]    P. Love, H. Li, Z. Irani, G. Treloar, and O. Faniran, “MiDiCON: a model for mitigating delays in construction,” 2000, pp. 8–10.
[20]    E. Shahrokhinasab, N. Hosseinzadeh, A. Monirabbasi, and S. Torkaman, “Performance of Image-Based Crack Detection Systems in Concrete Structures,” Journal of Soft Computing in Civil Engineering, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 127–139, 2020.